Mugabe Just Won’t Go
For those of you wondering about what has happened in the Zimbabwe election since I last posted on the topic about a month ago, here is the answer:
Not much
The results of the presidential election have yet to be announced, though it seems the government is making a gesture toward releasing them by the end of the week.
International pressure is mounting, but it seems like Mugabe has some big time countries protecting his regime. Of course China has massive investment interests in Zimbabwe and would probably like the regime to stay stable, while South Africa is fighting a proxy political battle over Zimbabwe pitting President Thabo Mbeki against his political rival Jacob Zuma, who is a staunch supporter of the Zimbabwe opposition (and recently elected head of the African National Congress). The fear here is a win for the opposition in Zimbabwe could lead to a larger win for the opposition in South Africa.
All of this is occurring amidst election violence that some have said is like “a war zone”. In all twenty people are verified to have died from election-related violence, and the Economist ran a story this week saying that the toll may be much higher according some doctors in the country.
It certainly seems like Mugabe lost the election and is trying desperately to hold on to power. Honestly, I’m not sure they’ll be able to force him out–the UN is virtually powerless due to China’s position, and Africa remains largely divided on the issue, so the African Union can be of little help as well.
Mugabe may be able to draw on all of this external support to make up for the lack of internal support he enjoys. We’ll see how it plays out.
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