Debating Myself

Barack Obama’s campaign is now a media darling and a populist movement across the country. Much has been touted of his ability to unify people from across the political aisle by reaching out to independents, moderate Republicans, and Democrats from all walks of life. But where exactly does Obama stand? Is Obama capable of delivering on his ambitious campaign promise to unite the country again? About eight years ago we had another presidential candidate promising some similar things—will history repeat itself?

One way to evaluate Obama’s ability to unite a divided electorate is to look at his policy preferences during his short time in office. The National Journal, a political weekly based in Washington D.C., conducts annual reviews of the voting records of legislator’s and rates them as either liberal or conservative. (For a more in-depth description of the methodology, look here. For a description of the “key votes” used in compiling the ratings, look here.) Obama, the Democratic front-runner and darling of independent voters, ranked as the most liberal senator in 2007. In the interest of fairness, it should be noted that Hillary Clinton was not far behind, ranking 16th in a notable shift to the left in 2007.

Interestingly, soon-to-be Republican nominee John McCain did not vote frequently enough to be included in this study, but a composite of his votes on social policy (including immigration) gave him with a much more centrist score than either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. A PDF file of McCain’s prior scores compiled by the National Journal can be found here—showing the continued shift toward the senator throughout McCain’s career.

Below is a table summarizing the data collected by the National Journal on all three candidates. McCain’s scores are on a 100 point scale of conservatism (100 being extremely conservative, 0 being not conservative) and the two Democratic contenders are scored on a corresponding scale of liberalism. Again, see the excellent description of the methodologies for specific details of the study.

While the Democrats are riding a wave of momentum into the general election, regardless of the outcome of the primaries, independent and moderate voters may want to look more closely at the voting records of the various candidates before deciding who will best represent their voice in the Oval Office. Though Obama, and Hillary as well, may be flashier campaigners and much more accomplished speakers and debaters than McCain, neither Democratic senator can match the public record that McCain has accumulated over the years. And neither can claim to be more moderate than him in anything other than rhetoric.

UPDATE: New poll results show that Obama’s appeal is ever broadening. Is this proof that rhetoric matters more than record? Or is it evidence that Americans want to vote for a candidate that moves them, that they believe in instead of a career politicians? This campaign is providing a really interesting look into the psyche of the American electorate—something to watch as the campaign season marches on. Keep watching.

And I thought I was having a bad week with papers due left and right and a need to make some cash… but apparently John McCain is set on having the worst week ever. First, he runs into an alleged sex scandal, and now he is running out of funding. While McCain was able to, at least partly, turn the whole sex scandal story back around on the NYT and rally some of the conservative base to his campaign (by crying liberal propaganda) it is really unclear that McCain can force the hand of the Federal Election Commission to get some more money for his campaign.

The real winners here are the Democrats. Perhaps they won’t get clobbered on by an extra few months of Republican assault before the general election.

It also has to make you wonder: If McCain is having so much trouble managing campaign financing (remember about 6 months back?), how is he going to lead us out of the current fiscal mess that he would inherit from George Bush Jr. come November?

I’m no McCain hater, but this can’t bode well for the senior Senator from Arizona.

I’m not sure what to think. Has the straight-talk express been derailed by a sex scandal? Or will it attack the press, rally supporters and keep on comin’ round that mountain? Everyone should read this story–it is what makes American politics so fascinating and frustrating at the same time.

Howard Kurtz - N.Y. Times Gets Flak From All Sides on Explosive Story