For those of you wondering about what has happened in the Zimbabwe election since I last posted on the topic about a month ago, here is the answer:

Not much

The results of the presidential election have yet to be announced, though it seems the government is making a gesture toward releasing them by the end of the week.

International pressure is mounting, but it seems like Mugabe has some big time countries protecting his regime. Of course China has massive investment interests in Zimbabwe and would probably like the regime to stay stable, while South Africa is fighting a proxy political battle over Zimbabwe pitting President Thabo Mbeki against his political rival Jacob Zuma, who is a staunch supporter of the Zimbabwe opposition (and recently elected head of the African National Congress). The fear here is a win for the opposition in Zimbabwe could lead to a larger win for the opposition in South Africa.

All of this is occurring amidst election violence that some have said is like “a war zone”. In all twenty people are verified to have died from election-related violence, and the Economist ran a story this week saying that the toll may be much higher according some doctors in the country.

It certainly seems like Mugabe lost the election and is trying desperately to hold on to power. Honestly, I’m not sure they’ll be able to force him out–the UN is virtually powerless due to China’s position, and Africa remains largely divided on the issue, so the African Union can be of little help as well.

Mugabe may be able to draw on all of this external support to make up for the lack of internal support he enjoys. We’ll see how it plays out.

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Even Tsvangirai is a bit surprised.

Just a quick note and update on the post below about Zimbabwe’s elections. Despite rampant vote fixing the opposition party has won, forcing Robert Mugabe into a historical runoff election.

Mugabe lost by four points to opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai 47-43. The third candidate, Simba Makoni, who in all likelihood siphoned votes off from Tsvangirai in the first round will not participate in the runoff. This clears the way for an easier campaign for Tsvangirai.

Yet it remains to be seen if the runoff election will be free enough and fair enough to allow an opposition victory.

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Zimbabwe’s 84 year old dictator Robert Mugabe will someday no doubt be the subject of a book titled “How Not to Run A Country” or alternatively “How to Squander, Exploit, and Destroy a Nation”.

In his tenure as Zimbabwe’s “President” Mugabe has seen inflation skyrocket to an unimaginable and unbelievable 100,000%. The US dollar, even in its current feeble state, is worth around 30,000 Zimbabwe dollars–but you won’t be able to trade it for that price because the rate gets worse every single day.

Even if you forget that Mugabe also destroyed 400,000 homes in a crackdown on black market trading and zoning violations, the opposition should be able to phone this election in and still win by a landslide. Right? Right?!?

Wrong. In the Parliament the ruling party, Mugabe’s Zanu PF, is still managing a slim lead as election results are released. Although the opposition has declared itself the winner in the presidential vote, the results are not being released. For up to the minute results check out this blog set up by the Zimbabwe Guardian based in London.

Obviously this isn’t a fair election. Some curious factors that only add to that suspicion:

• Each round of results being released show 50% of the seats going to MDC (the Opposition) and the other 50% going to Zanu PF–with a slight lead emerging only in the last round of results.
• South African observers were driven away by secret service and security forces after allegedly witnessing voter intimidation.
• Mugabe has a history of voter intimidation.
• The results of the Presidential election are not being released despite being counted alongside the votes of the Parliamentary votes.

For a good summary of the election and the craziness surrounding the results, read this article from the Deutsche Welle.

Why should we care?

Zimbabwe is certainly important economically. The country possesses a huge amount of untapped wealth in the form of natural resources including coal, platinum and other precious metals.

Also, geopolitically the country is situated north of Africa’s stablest democratic regime (which is a minor endorsement for South Africa I suppose) and the potential for large scale destabilization there to spillover and erase the stabilizing effect of South Africa’s presence is considerable.

Zimbabwe will continue to be a source of geopolitical economic struggle due to its vast mineral resources. With China, India, the EU and the US all clamoring for more commodities, the fate and stability of mineral-rich and politically impoverished nations is increasingly important.

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